Det er ekstremt dystert og tragisk, når man kigger på amerikansk økonomi i øjeblikket, som den er i øjeblikket – det være sig, hvis man eksempelvis kigger på arbejdsløshed eller vækstprognoser.

Som tidligere beskrevet er kombinationen af dårlige opbakningstal og en økonomisk nedtur en giftig kombination for den siddende præsident, Donald J. Trump. Men et spørgsmål, der er værd at stille, er, hvor meget denne økonomiske situation rent faktisk vil skade præsidenten.

“Typically an economic downturn hurts the incumbent president — think about Carter in 1980 or George H.W. Bush in 1992. But of course we have not seen a downturn as sharp or as large in recent history, and this makes it harder to get a precise estimate on how much the downturn could cost Trump”, siger professor i statskundskab ved Vanderbilt University John Sides til USA2020.dk. Han fortsætter derudover:

“And there is also the question of whether views of the president have become less affected by objective economic conditions. If so, then the downturn may not hurt Trump as much as it would have hurt the president in earlier years.”

Det er betragtninger, der er værd at holde øje med. Hvilken rolle økonomien så spiller i 2020, må tiden vise, slutter John Sides:

“Honestly, it’s too early to know. It depends on how the economic contraction plays out and how long it lasts. And we still have to see how much the contraction will cost Trump.”